Why you should be excited about this year's tennis clay court swing

Channel Martians.

They hit Monte Carlo Country Club or Madrid's Caja Magica in April, or they hit the Foro Italica in Rome or Roland Garros in Paris in May. They see people chasing a fuzzy yellow ball around red dust cones. They quickly send the message back to headquarters.

"Seriously, they are just like us…trying to find out who this Rafa character is that everyone is talking about…apparently some kind of deity…soon.”

In America, except for the super-serious tennis fans of Texas and South Carolina, the explosion of baseballs in bats heralds spring. In Europe, and for tennis fans everywhere, it's the squash of shoes sliding all over that polished red brick, and the soft 'pop' of that fuzzy yellow ball bouncing off the dirt.

This is where the clay comes from. This is Part I of Tennis on Organic Surfaces: just over two months of terracotta scrubbing; the protests go on and on and on and on; and socks so full of red crumbs that they are sometimes thrown in the trash instead of the washing machine.

It's a great time of year. The grass of Wimbledon's Center Court may offer an unparalleled sense of peace when laid eyes on it, whether in person or on television, but is there anything in sport that hits harder than the burnt orange of a freshly swept clay court when the bright sun of a European afternoon really catches it?

For some players, it's the next shot at a fresh start. For the Casper Ruuds and Iga Swiateks of the world, who thrive on dirt, stepping on clay after three months of hard courts is like coming home. It's also a trip back in time, when the electronic line call disappears and is replaced by umpires who descend from their chairs to examine the marks of the ball that tell whether it's in or out.

Here's what to expect as tennis gets its dirtiest.

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King

Any discussion of clay court tennis has to start with Rafael Nadal, the so-called king of clay who has won 1,468 French Open singles titles – OK, actually it's only 14.

Nadal has effectively been sidelined by multiple injuries to his troubled left hip since the 2023 Australian Open. He tried to return in January, but suffered another injury after three games. He played an exhibition match in early March in Las Vegas, then pulled out of Indian Wells, presumably to get in optimal shape for his beloved clay.

He then withdrew from this week's tournament in Monte Carlo - one of his favorites and his most successful event besides the French Open.

"These are very difficult moments for me in terms of sport," Nadal wrote on social media. "You don't know how hard it is for me not to play these events."

The use of the plural "events" was troubling. How many more?

Nadal's participation, even in slightly weakened form, changes the math in any clay court tournament. He'll celebrate his 38th birthday in June in the middle of the French Open, but if he's doing his sliding, swinging and curling tricks in Paris, it's a can't-miss event.

But will he come or not? Is this the end?

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Next Rafa?

Iga Swiatek has a ways to go before he reaches Rafa's territory. However, he has won three of the last four French Opens. He is still only 22 years old. This can go on for a long time.

Swiatek has made no secret of the fact that he worships Nadal and his game on clay shines for the same reason he does. The surface gives him extra seconds to hunt for a strong grip and it pops the ball right into his strike zone.

He has not been the banker this year that he has been at certain points in his career. The big hitters have taken him out in Australia and Miami.

He was then undefeated on red clay in the spring of 2022. Last year, he won two of his four tournaments during the spring clay season and reached the final of the third (Madrid). He has an aura on clay that he doesn't have anywhere else; The only question now is how big it will grow.

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Stephens 2.0?

Stefanos Tsitsipas has played below the promise of his career over the last 10 months, even early last year when he reached the final of the Australian Open.

He has won just one tournament since then, in Los Cabos last summer, which is hardly the best choice of the best. His last four Grand Slams have been quarterfinals, fourth round, second round and fourth round. This was a player who was a one-time heir apparent, a Tour Finals champion at the age of 20.

Tsitsipas is a beautiful watch on almost any surface, but on clay the charm and dynamism of his game really rises. She glides as well as anyone and just genuinely enjoys the dance, which is tennis in the dirt. Too often in these low months, he lets players pick a single-handed backhand that's as flashy as ever, but he can struggle to get on top of the big, high-bouncing palms of the best players. He has struggled to keep the game simple, to bully opponents with his big serve and palm, as he did during the best stretches of his career.

Now he's back in the dirt again. Perhaps most importantly for one of the tour's more outwardly philosophical players, he sees the surface's restorative potential. He talks wistfully of the days when he swept his own yard, and has likened seeing a messy yard swept clean at the end of the series to a "cleansing of the soul".

The Greek has dropped out of the top 10, but speaking to him in Indian Wells last month, the brightness and optimism were still there. Savi is his best chance to come alive one more time.

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Will Sabalenka get his Porsche?

This might be the most mundane of questions when it comes to Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time Australian Open champion and world number two.

Last month, Sabalenka's ex-boyfriend Konstantin Koltsov died in an apparent suicide by Miami police. Although Sabalenka and Koltsov were no longer together, he referred to her death as an "unspeakable tragedy". He and his tight-knit team have worked hard to move forward, but also to grieve.

It's not clear what state of mind Sabalenka is in as she plays the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart, but she has made no secret of her desire to claim one of the sport's great prizes — a Porsche near the main court where the players compete. Some years it's a Boxster, sometimes a Carrera, last year it was a Taycan.

Sabalenka can undoubtedly afford to buy a Porsche. He wants to win one though. After losing to Swiatek in the final last year, he pretended to break the windshield with the runner-up prize.

Sabalenka was one point away from the French Open final last year before losing to Karolina Muchova. He can play on clay and beat Swiatek in Madrid last year. A new Porsche would be a nice start to his 2024 clay season.

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Jannik Sinner's next step

Jannik Sinner is currently the best player in the world. He doesn't think very highly of himself on clay.

"I usually struggle there," he said recently.

And yet the first time most people heard of Sinner was when he made the quarters of the 2020 French Open.

He has beaten basically everyone brilliantly on hard courts in the last year. Can this version of Sinner translate to clay? There's no reason why you shouldn't. He is a magical mover. His condition is fine now. This season may be the missing piece that dispels any doubts about the perfection of his game - even if most of the world no longer has any of those doubts.

We've bought in. Is he?

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Can power thrive on soft stuff?

Short answer, probably not. Ask Pete Sampras.

Nevertheless, Ben Shelton and Danielle Collins, both big hitters, won clay court tournaments in Houston and Charleston last week.

Wins come with bold stars. The red clay in Houston and the green stuff in Charleston play differently than the real deal. Both draws also lacked the best players, especially those who skipped them to get more time for the real European stuff they thrive on.

And yet, there was something about Shelton's way of playing, almost defying the clay rather than adapting his power game to it, that made me want another trip through the dirt of Europe. He hardly played stuff when he was younger or in college.

Due to its strength, Shelton vs the clay is an irresistible force vs a solid target area. He's big, fast and strong, and has a left arm that can hit through any pitch… Maybe. If he can figure out how to move the clay — and he's working on it — fun times are ahead.

Collins, on the other hand, has been in contention for Sinner's current best player in the world for the past month. He has won the Miami Open, the biggest trophy of his career, and followed it up last week in Charleston with what he says is another. his final season. The companies earned him over $1 million in prize money and 1,500 ranking points.

Clay is supposed to be kryptonite for a big forward like Collins. He will lose at some point. But? He has destroyed most of his opponents in the last three weeks. Right now, he's a non-Swiatek name that no one wants to see next to theirs in the lottery.

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I'll keep an eye on…

1. Novak Dkokovic flies solo. He fired his longtime coach Goran Ivanisevic last month. He has not named a permanent replacement and is going it alone for now. Does he yell at the empty chair in his box when things go south?
2. Mirra Andreeva. Clay is where the 16-year-old Russian broke through last year, but he has only played two matches since his Australian Open loss. He withdrew from Miami with tendinitis in his arm.
3. Matteo Berrettini on the way back. He won the title in Morocco last week on clay, but then looked lost on the surface when he lost to Miomir Kecmanovic in Monte Carlo. Still, winning a clay title at all is impressive for a power player, especially after the kind of injury the Italian has suffered. A solid campaign would suit him very well on turf, where he has thrived when healthy.
4. to Jabeur. Because no one can make the ball dance on clay like he can.
5. Gael Monfils at the French Open. He is healthy and currently recovering. It might be the loudest tennis match of the year - something he accomplished in five sets to one against Sebastian Baez at Roland Garros last year, as the cheers of the home crowd could be heard from a mile away.
6. Carlos Alcarazi's sore right forearm.

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Four predictions will certainly age badly…

1. Coco Gauff won the French Open. He reached the final two years ago. People underestimate him on clay because he's American. Bad idea, especially since Brad Gilbert taught him how to win ugly by making matches physical and clay gives him extra time in the palms of his hands.
2. Djokovic won the French Open. The world has said it is the era of Sinner and Alcaraz. Djokovic says he is the best clay-court player not named Rafael Nadal. He is right.
3. Alcaraz beat Madrid. For him, Madrid will be what Monte Carlo has been for Nadal, where he will get his red clay roller going, for a while.
4. People will be talking a lot about Czech Tomas Machac come June and wondering where the 23-year-old and his shortest shorts have been all this time.

Don't forget to leave your predictions in the comments.

(Top photo: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)